In the days when I wrote individual Oscar blog posts, broken down by category, I tried to anticipate who would win and why. I think this year I’m just going to do this twice: Pick who I would vote for, then come back right before the ceremony and try to pick the winners.
As per usual, I’m going to only talk about categories where I’ve seen everything.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET – Marty Supreme
LEONARDO DICAPRIO – One Battle after Another
ETHAN HAWKE – Blue Moon
MICHAEL B. JORDAN – Sinners
WAGNER MOURA – The Secret Agent
Any of these guys could take home the statue, really. All five of them were amazing in their own way. Of the five, Jordan and Hawke had the hardest jobs. Jordan, because he played two quite different characters, and Hawke, due to the height difference between him and his character, which necessitated some interesting shooting. My favorite performance is probably Hawke’s, but if you asked me on any other day, it could be any of them.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
BENICIO DEL TORO – One Battle after Another
JACOB ELORDI – Frankenstein
DELROY LINDO – Sinners
SEAN PENN – One Battle after Another
STELLAN SKARSGÅRD – Sentimental Value
I’m so stoked to see Delroy Lindo and Stellan Skarsgård get nominated. Both of them have been favorite character actors of mine for quite some time. But Skarsgård is far and away my choice for this. It was an emotional, revealing, and brave performance that could well have gone down as a co-lead.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
JESSIE BUCKLEY – Hamnet
ROSE BYRNE – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
KATE HUDSON – Song Sung Blue
RENATE REINSVE – Sentimental Value
EMMA STONE – Bugonia
It’s great to finally see Kate Hudson back in the Oscar nominations. She got one at the outset of her career for Almost Famous, then wound up doing a lot of light romantic comedies that kept her away from Oscar contention. Song Sung Blue was really her film, and her performance was the emotional center of it. That all said, I think I’d give it to Buckley. Hamnet is a beautiful character study of the price of fame mixed with the loss of a child, and Buckley’s Hathaway was emotionally raw with a huge range. Would love to have seen Chase Infiniti get a nod here – anyone who can surpass DiCaprio, Del Toro, and Penn in the same film not only deserves a nomination but also a statue.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
ELLE FANNING – Sentimental Value
INGA IBSDOTTER LILLEAAS – Sentimental Value
AMY MADIGAN – Weapons
WUNMI MOSAKU – Sinners
TEYANA TAYLOR – One Battle after Another
Elle Fanning is my favorite one here. She basically played herself and had to be the bright, light spot in a heavy family drama. Playing herself is a bit of a tightrope walk, but she surpassed expectations. Teyana Taylor is a close second. Taylor played a firebrand political activist whose job was to overshadow DiCaprio. Though she was only in the first act, her presence looms over the entire film, and gives emotional weight to Infiniti’s role.
CASTING
HAMNET – Nina Gold
MARTY SUPREME -Jennifer Venditti
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER – Cassandra Kulukundis
THE SECRET AGENT – Gabriel Domingues
SINNERS – Francine Maisler
I’m glad to see Casting finally get its chance to shine, even if I’m not exactly sure how to quantify it for an award. To that end, I look at the best overall group of actors and how well they fit their characters, with an added bonus for any inspired, out-of-the-box choices. That’s Marty Supreme in a nutshell to me. Chalamet may be the “it” guy right now, but wouldn’t necessarily be first on the list for a frantic, ethically dubious ping pong player. Every actor was pitch-perfect, including the way out of left field casting of Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
FRANKENSTEIN – Dan Laustsen
MARTY SUPREME – Darius Khondji
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER – Michael Bauman
SINNERS – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
TRAIN DREAMS – Adolpho Veloso
Cinematography is a category that often seems to get lumped into whatever form of momentum is happening for any film. I’d give this one to Veloso for Train Dreams, whose story and emotional weight rely completely on how it’s shot. Every frame was beautiful and haunting in its own way. I’d watch this movie on mute.
COSTUME DESIGN
AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH – Deborah L. Scott
FRANKENSTEIN – Kate Hawley
HAMNET – Malgosia Turzanska
MARTY SUPREME – Miyako Bellizzi
SINNERS – Ruth E. Carter
Give me Bellizzi for Marty Supreme here. 70s films are a hard line to walk. The styles used are generally outlandish, particularly when adding sports into the mix. But the film walked the line well – it felt authentic without being over the top. A close second would be Sinners, for much the same reason: The Depression-era has a similar tightrope to walk.
DIRECTING
HAMNET – Chloé Zhao
MARTY SUPREME – Josh Safdie
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER – Paul Thomas Anderson
SENTIMENTAL VALUE – Joachim Trier
SINNERS – Ryan Coogler
I love films that have a kinetic, flowing feel to them. So Safdie gets my nod here for Marty Supreme. The film left like one constantly flowing story, each scene pushing into the next with constant movement and feel. That’s hard to do, and easy to screw up.
FILM EDITING
F1 – Stephen Mirrione
MARTY SUPREME – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER – Andy Jurgensen
SENTIMENTAL VALUE – Olivier Bugge Coutté
SINNERS – Michael P. Shawver
Along the same lines as Directing, a good film edit that feels like it flows naturally for an entire film is hard to achieve. However, I’d give the nod to F1 over Marty Supreme here. It’s a huge budget, huge scale, and felt completely natural without feeling like it was screaming for attention.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
BUGONIA – Jerskin Fendrix
FRANKENSTEIN – Alexandre Desplat
HAMNET – Max Richter
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER – Jonny Greenwood
SINNERS – Ludwig Goransson
If you’ve seen Sinners, you know how much music is woven into the DNA of this film. All due respect to the other nominees, but Goransson gets this, and it’s not even close.
BEST PICTURE
BUGONIA
Ed Guiney & Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen, Producers
F1
Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
FRANKENSTEIN
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber, Producers
HAMNET
Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, Producers
MARTY SUPREME
Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet, Producers
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers
THE SECRET AGENT
Emilie Lesclaux, Producer
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, Producers
SINNERS
Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, Producers
TRAIN DREAMS
Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler, Producers
I know this won’t be what wins, but I’d take Sentimental Value out of this group. I love a good, slow burn character study, and this film is so well done. Marty Supreme is a close second, for reasons I’ve already talked about, so I won’t repeat myself. But I could be fine with just about any other film taking home the gold statue – this was really a great year. I would like to have seen Blue Moon, 28 Years Later, My Dead Friend Zoe, and The Long Walk get recognition here… but you can’t nominate everyone.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
FRANKENSTEIN – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
HAMNET – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
MARTY SUPREME – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
SINNERS – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
I think Sinners gets this one. Unlike the others in the category, most of it took place in a single setting. While that sounds easier, it isn’t, because every detail of that one location needs to be perfect.
SOUND
F1 – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
FRANKENSTEIN – Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER – José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
SINNERS – Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
SIRĀT – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas
F1. Any sports movie always has a tough job for sound, and race cars are harder than most. This one holds up well both in the theater and at home.
VISUAL EFFECTS
AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
F1 – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
THE LOST BUS – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
SINNERS – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean
It’s hard to see Avatar not winning here, but here’s my case: The film didn’t really do much beyond what the first two did. My pick would be The Lost Bus. The entire film was about fire, and that is a very hard effect to get right. Particularly the SHADOW of fire, which looms large as the villain of the film.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
BUGONIA – Screenplay by Will Tracy
FRANKENSTEIN – Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
HAMNET – Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER – Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
TRAIN DREAMS – Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
One Battle After Another is a great story, while Hamnet is damned near impossible to put on screen in a compelling way. Both of these deserve the gold statue. Too bad they both can’t win.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
BLUE MOON – Written by Robert Kaplow
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT = Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators – Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
MARTY SUPREME – Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
SENTIMENTAL VALUE – Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
SINNERS – Written by Ryan Coogler
It Was Just An Accident is my pick here. While all of these films are deserving in their own way, and I’d love to see something like Sentimental Value take it home, but what Panahi did is amazing. He took a heavy political story and brought so much wry comedy to it that it’s as entertaining as it is informative. That’s really hard to do.
